Per flight, mostly US airlines, latest full-year figures. Dots sit on a log scale, so each tick is ten times rarer than the one before it. Rows marked rough are built from two public figures, with the math in the source line.
How this works
Everything in the odds list is rolled independently on every flight at its real rate. The everyday stuff (security lines, gate changes, babies, dogs, drinks) and the rare weird moments are added for color. Each one is something that really happens on US flights, but its rate is a guess, not a published number. Flight times come from the real distance between the airports, and every clock shows local time.
Use this to retrain your gut over a few sessions. If you catch yourself needing to run it before every real flight, take a break from it, since checking for reassurance can keep a fear going.